By the Investment Committee at Fogwill & Jones 

While this commentary includes insights from the first few weeks of the second quarter (beginning in April), the events that have unfolded since January 20th have been, at best, tumultuous. 

The global population was given early warning signs on January 20th. However, what transpired on April 2nd came as a complete surprise. Many countries had braced themselves for bad news around tariffs, yet the scale and swiftness of the measures announced by President Trump caught the world off guard. Few publications have taken an “I told you so” tone – because, in truth, the sheer magnitude of the percentage tariffs imposed, and the economic implications, stunned markets worldwide. 

Here at Fogwill & Jones, our Investment Committee is paying close attention to the potential long-term effects. One key concern is how these tariff policies could edge global economies toward recession. 

The path ahead will likely involve significant rebalancing in trade, particularly in exports and imports, if nations are to negotiate reduced tariffs. This will demand considerable diplomatic effort, arguably playing into the hands of the U.S. administration unless affected countries can secure alternative, tariff-free markets for their goods. 

The U.S.’s blunt and sweeping approach has, understandably and rightfully, unsettled global markets. Much of the world now faces an ambiguous economic landscape. Markets can digest good news, and even bad news, but what they struggle with most is uncertainty. And right now, uncertainty reigns. 

That said, we anticipate this uncertainty will gradually ease in the coming weeks and months. By summer, we expect markets to begin stabilising, giving global economies a chance to recalibrate and stay on course. 

As with many politically driven shocks to financial markets, this period of disruption also brings opportunity. It’s clear that some of Trump’s policy moves are strategically pro certain regions and anti others – though discerning the winners requires reading between the lines. While market recovery won’t begin until uncertainty recedes, our Investment Committee has already identified a few promising opportunities for the short to medium term. These would, of course, require extensive research and due diligence before being incorporated into portfolios. 

In summary, April 2nd delivered an unexpected jolt to the system. It’s essential for investors to remain aware of the heightened volatility in today’s market. While these conditions are unsettling, history suggests that this volatility should subside over the coming months. Patience and perspective are key – now is the time to hold steady and wait for recovery to unfold.